The Future of Out of Home in a Self-Driving World: What Happens When No One Is Looking at the Road?

What Happens When No One Is Looking at the Road?
The Future of Out of Home in a Self-Driving World

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Parts 1,2,3 

By Brent Baer, Publisher, OOH Today and OOH Owner, baerboards

This post aims to prompt the OOH industry to think, discuss, and take action on the issues I believe we’re facing. Self-driving/automated vehicles pose a threat to our business that we haven’t seen since the perceived demise of OOH with the passage of the Highway Beautification Act of 1965. Yet we survived. I recognize my statement is dramatic, but I believe Automated Vehicles (AV) are a real threat.

I’d like to share a few personal points you should know, as my writing assistant, Allison Iverson, and I researched and built this narrative.

1. I have been in the OOH business since 1980.
2. I LOVE billboards!
3. I own billboards. Granted, I do not own many, and my actual revenues pale in comparison to most of you owners reading this, but nevertheless, I value the few I have, and they are as important to me as the thousands owned by Lamar or the dozens of you owning hundreds.
4. I bleed potato paste and vinyl ink.
5. I have a handful of friends who are OOH diehard veterans, owning and swearing by their self-driving Teslas, and they see the potential demise of OOH as well.
6. The government will have to pry my steering wheel from my cold, hard hands one finger at a time before I give up my right and love of driving.

So what are we going to do?

Here’s the deal, readers. Automated vehicles are coming. Those who poo-poo that statement by responding, “it’s years away,” are essentially agreeing with me and consciously choosing to ignore that Automated Vehicles are coming and will adversely impact billboards. AV’s are coming. Like Winter from the TV movie series Game of Thrones, the White Walkers (Winter) are coming, and we need to be prepared.

So if it’s 10 years, 15 years, or 30 years away, they are coming. When they are here, and it may be gradual, AVs will be here, and as an Industry, we’d better be prepared.

I’m frustrated that the OOH leaders are ignoring that fact. It’s now time to account for AV’s arrival and act today to prepare for the what-ifs we will face as a billboard Industry.  I recommend that we start today, form a committee, and hire an individual (pay them handsomely) to head the think tank needed to develop solutions for surviving the advent of Automated Vehicles (AV).

Over the past seven years, I have raised concerns about AVs and spoken with the highest levels of leadership in the billboard Industry about them.  In those conversations, the answers have been common in theme: “We know it’s coming, and we don’t have an answer.”  “We do not want to panic the Industry, particularly the advertising/brands, about our future.”  “We do not want to panic the investors or stock market regarding the future value of OOH.”  “If you share these statements with anyone, I will deny any conversation and blacklist you from future discussions of anything OOH related.”

We’re looking for someone with the IQ and vision of Jobs or Gates to join the team and help us overcome AV threats. And pay them handsomely because we are paying for survival. 

The following 15 years will reshape out-of-home advertising more dramatically than any period since the invention of large-format printing or the digital billboard itself. Roadside is in peril with AVs. As autonomous vehicles move from pilot programs to mainstream transportation — with Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, and others expanding faster than expected — the question every OOH executive should be asking is: what happens to billboard attention when no one is driving?

The early intuition is that passengers in self-driving vehicles will bury their faces in their phones, ignoring the world around them. But the truth is more complicated — and in many ways, potentially far more exciting for the OOH sector. In a future where cars drive themselves, the physical world becomes a new canvas for media, and the vehicle becomes a new screen.

The windows, every window, will become the screen for information and entertainment. Ask yourselves why Apple obtained a Patent for an augmented reality windshield? If you think it is only because the current screens, as we imagine them, aren’t big enough, you are ignoring Apple’s intelligence and forward thinking. I believe Apple sees the future in automobile screens, and it’s called entertainment, information, and fundamentally, ad dollars. Have you ever watched Apple+ on your home screen?

For those of you who say, ‘I will always look at the roadside while driving, you are ignoring the generation growing up today, buried in their screens. It seems the younger generation isn’t rushing to the DMVs to obtain their driver’s licenses. As screens are taking over the lives of youth, so is the excitement of driving diminishing.

So, yes, YOU may never stop looking at the roadside while traveling to Grandma’s house this Thanksgiving, but take a look in the back seat to see what junior is looking at. It’s not the scenery. It’s the screen. The generations following us could give a rat’s behind what is on the road.

In the comments that follow, we will attempt to present a balanced look at the future.

As for me personally, it looks bleak. I ask: why would anyone look at the ‘scenery’ when they could read a book, watch a movie, text, work, play a digital game, sleep, or fool around (yes, I said it) while the self-driving car drives them to their destination?

Here’s an optimistic view on what OOH could look like in 2040.

The Good

1. Autonomous Vehicles Will Increase, Not Decrease, Time Outside the Home

Self-driving cars won’t just replace personal driving — they’ll expand mobility. In cities like Phoenix and San Francisco, Waymo’s per-mile usage is already accelerating faster than early adoption forecasts predicted. As fleets grow, people will take more trips because mobility becomes cheaper, safer, and more accessible for seniors, people with disabilities, and non-drivers.

More trips = more impressions.

OOH has consistently grown with mobility trends. When highways expanded after WWII, billboards exploded in number. When ridesharing surged in the 2010s, place-based video grew as well. Autonomous fleets represent the next wave of mobility expansion — and OOH will follow.

2. Attention Isn’t Lost — It’s Redistributed

Will passengers look at their phones? Absolutely. But attention doesn’t vanish — it shifts.

Phone Time Doesn’t Kill OOH

Advertisers feared smartphones would destroy billboards. Instead, OOH has outgrown every traditional media channel over the last decade. Why? Because:

• People still look out the window
• OOH triggers mobile search
• Digital screens create motion and contrast
• Phones fight boredom; billboards break boredom

When no one needs to drive, passengers have even more mental bandwidth. They will still glance outside — especially when the environment is dynamic, vivid, and surprising.

3. Billboards Won’t Be Obsolete — They’ll Become Intelligent

In 15 years, static billboards will still exist, but digital will dominate. And those digital screens will be networked, sensor-driven, and connected to in-vehicle systems in three significant ways:

1. Real-Time Vehicle-to-Screen Communication

Autonomous vehicles will broadcast non-personal, privacy-hardened data packets such as:

• Vehicle speed
• Approximate occupancy
• Generalized audience profile categories
• Time, weather, route direction

Screens will use that data to adjust:

• Creative triggers
• Dayparting logic
• Contextual messages
• Audience segmentation

A billboard will “know” that a wave of vehicles carrying commuters, families, or tourists is approaching — and will tailor ads accordingly.

1. In-Car Screens Will Sync With OOH Screens

The same way QR codes bridge OOH to mobile, autonomous vehicles will create a seamless media loop:

1. You pass a billboard for a restaurant
2. The car’s dashboard suggests it
3. You tap to browse the menu
4. The car reroutes if you choose

Billboards won’t disappear; they’ll initiate the digital engagement inside the vehicle.

1. OOH Will Become a Trigger Layer for Mobile Commerce

In 2040, passing a billboard won’t just show an ad — it will:

• Trigger an in-car offer
• Load a relevant playlist or product carousel
• Sync with AR overlays
• Offer instant booking for events, restaurants, and travel

Outdoor becomes the top-of-funnel awareness AND the mid-funnel conversion mechanism.

4. Windows Will Become Screens — And That’s Good for OOH

As autonomous fleets grow, expect major automakers to experiment with:

• Transparent OLED windows
• AR overlays
• Immersive ambient experiences
• Computer vision mapping the outside world

Rather than replacing billboards, this tech enhances OOH by making the environment around billboards more interactive. For example:

A passenger sees a billboard for a movie.
The window displays the trailer.
The phone loads nearby showtimes.

Instead of OOH vs. mobile, the future is OOH + mobile + in-car displays working as one ecosystem.

5. OOH Demand Will Shift Into Three New Zones
6. High-Autonomy Corridors

Areas with dedicated lanes for autonomous fleets — think Phoenix’s Waymo zones on steroids — will have the highest-value OOH screens in the U.S. by 2040.

1. Pick-Up/Drop-Off Ecosystems

Autonomous mobility hubs will become the new Times Square–style digital plazas, with:

• Gigantic LED clusters
• Retail kiosks
• Immersive brand takeovers
• Place-based networks rivaling airports

1. Suburban Expansion

When driving becomes frictionless, suburbs will sprawl again—new mobility corridors = new billboard corridors.

6. Creative Will Get Smarter, Faster, and More Personalized

Expect the rise of:

• Adaptive creative that changes every few seconds
• Weather-responsive messaging
• Vehicle-specific targeting (but privacy-safe)
• Dynamic storytelling across a sequence of boards
• Contextual triggers based on in-car behavior

OOH creative will be more like programmatic video than traditional static display.

7. The Real Threat Isn’t Autonomous Cars — It’s Irrelevance

Billboards will not die.
But dumb billboards might.

OOH owners who fail to invest in digital infrastructure, audience analytics, and dynamic content delivery will get left behind. Meanwhile, networks that embrace connectivity will thrive in an autonomous future.

Conclusion: OOH in 2040 Will Be More Powerful Than Today — If the Industry Evolves

Autonomous vehicles won’t reduce billboard visibility.
They’ll make outdoor media more intelligent, more contextual, and more measurable.

The real future of OOH isn’t about whether people look outside; it’s about how the outside world becomes part of a larger digital journey that begins the moment someone enters a self-driving car.

In 15 years, OOH won’t fight the phone.
It will activate the phone — and the car — and the environment — in ways we are only beginning to imagine.

The BAD

The Dark Future of Out of Home: What Happens to Billboards When No One Is Looking at the Road?

The rise of autonomous vehicles is not a distant science-fiction scenario. Waymo is already completing millions of fully driverless miles in Phoenix and San Francisco. Cruise (even with setbacks) continues development. Zoox and Tesla are racing toward mass deployment. Within 15 years, self-driving cars will be the dominant mode of transportation in major U.S. metros.

For the OOH industry, this is an inflection point — and possibly a breaking point.

Because the truth is stark:
If billboard companies do not adapt — rapidly — they risk becoming obsolete.

Below is the uncomfortable outlook that no one in the industry wants to discuss openly, but that everyone senses is coming.

1. When No One Drives, No One Looks Up

Today, OOH depends on a simple reality: drivers are captive viewers.
Even with smartphones in the passenger seat, drivers still glance at the road, the horizon, and the surrounding environment.

In a fully autonomous world, that reason disappears.

Passengers won’t be looking outside.
They’ll be watching shows and scrolling social feeds. In video calls. Working. Sleeping. Gaming. Wearing AR glasses. Immersed in whatever screen is in front of their face.

The windshield becomes irrelevant. The landscape becomes background noise.

And a static billboard — unmoving, unlit, unconnected — becomes invisible.

2. Usage of Waymo and Autonomous Fleets Will Explode — Bad News for Static OOH

Self-driving mobility will create:

• Fully automated commutes
• Autonomous taxis replacing personal cars
• Vehicles with no steering wheels, facing inward
• Wraparound displays inside the cabin
• Entertainment-first interiors designed to pull attention inward

Waymo already records rising repeat usage from people who don’t even own cars.
Imagine millions of daily riders across dozens of cities.

These riders will not look out the window.

And that means millions fewer eyeballs on highways, roadways, and arterial corridors where static billboards live.

3. Static Billboards Become the New Newspaper

Static boards have survived everything — the internet, smartphones, and DVRs.
But autonomous vehicles represent a fundamentally different risk:

They remove the driver’s gaze.

OOH’s foundational audience assumption collapses.

If the industry clings to static posters without investing in digital conversion, data connectivity, or dynamic creative, those boards will:

• Lose relevance
• Lose viewership
• Lose advertiser confidence
• Lose CPM value
• Lose entire categories of brands looking for measurable audiences

Just as newsprint evaporated when readers moved online, static OOH will fade when audiences move inward.

4. The Real Threat: Mobile and In-Car Screens Will Outcompete Billboards

OOH has long benefited from mobile companions — billboards drive search, and phones capture conversions.

But in a driverless world, the relationship flips.

The phone will dominate the commute.

I just wanted to let you know that this isn’t a supplement.

In-car screens will:

• Capture all top-of-funnel impressions
• Deliver personalized ads
• Respond to behavior, routes, and user profiles
• Convert instantly, without looking outside
• Become contextualized through real-time data

Why look at a static vinyl board on I-17 when your car is feeding you:

• restaurant options
• shopping prompts
• travel deals
• streaming content
• personalized ads

Billboards can’t compete with:

• personalization
• interactivity
• attribution
• targeting
• immediate conversion

Unless they evolve.

5. The Most Dangerous Scenario: Cars Ignore the Billboard, But the Billboard Doesn’t Know

In 15 years, every autonomous fleet will be:

• networked
• sensor-driven
• data-rich
• fully aware of its passengers
• feeding information to cloud systems
• delivering context-based advertising

Meanwhile, unchanged billboards will be:

• blind
• offline
• unable to respond
• unable to adapt messaging
• unable to link with in-car experiences

A static billboard will be like a silent actor performing in a theater where the audience has left the room.

6. Without Connectivity, Billboards Lose Their Reason to Exist

Advertisers will ask:
“Why pay for impressions no one can verify?”

If the OOH industry doesn’t integrate with:

• autonomous vehicle data
• real-time traffic patterns
• passenger behavioral signals
• mobile conversion paths

…then OOH impressions become guesswork.

In a world of hyper-precision marketing, guesswork is worthless.

Advertisers will shift budgets toward:

• in-car displays
• mobile video
• dynamic DOOH with data triggers
• augmented reality ad overlays

Traditional OOH will be bypassed entirely.

7. The 2040 Billboard Landscape if the Industry Fails to Adapt

Imagine the future that could happen if billboard companies stay passive:

Highways lined with fading static boards.
Advertisers migrating to in-car media networks.
Valuations of OOH companies are collapsing.
Cities are refusing new permits for “obsolete visual clutter.”
Younger planners are ignoring OOH entirely.
Budgets are shifting permanently to digital ecosystems.
Static boards are becoming relics — the telephone poles of advertising.

This is the future no one wants to believe — but it is absolutely possible.

Conclusion: The Warning Is Clear — Adapt or Disappear

Autonomous vehicles won’t kill out-of-home.

But they will kill the parts of the industry that refuse to evolve.

The winners will be:

• digital operators
• data-integrated networks
• dynamic content platforms
• companies building direct pipelines to in-car media ecosystems

The losers will be:

• static billboard owners
• operators unwilling to modernize
• companies denying what’s coming
• organizations hoping the old model will “hold on.”

The OOH industry has about 15 years before self-driving cars become the default.

Fifteen years to evolve into a connected media platform — or fade into irrelevance.

The warning signs are already here.
The question is whether the industry will take them seriously.

The Lamar Risk: What Happens When a Static-Heavy Giant Faces an Autonomous Future

Lamar Advertising is one of the most respected and enduring companies in the OOH industry. Its footprint is massive, its family-led culture is admired, and its network defines roadside advertising in America.

But Lamar also has the highest exposure to the autonomous-vehicle shift because it owns the most extensive static billboard portfolio in the U.S.—more than 150,000 displays.

In a world where millions of passengers stop looking out the window, that exposure becomes a liability.

Below is a realistic scenario of what could happen if Lamar fails to modernize key segments of its inventory.

1. The High-Risk Inventory: Roadside Static Billboards

Only about 4–5% of Lamar’s roadside bulletins are digital.
That means more than 95% are static — dependent on the audience of drivers who must face forward.

But in a future where:

• Autonomous vehicles dominate
• Passengers’ attention turns to in-car screens
• Phones and AR devices command the commute
• Routes become smoother, quieter, and more insulated

…static roadside exposure loses its fundamental value.

Let’s quantify it.

2. The Attention Collapse Scenario

Assume the following conservative model by 2040:

• 50% of urban and suburban trips are autonomous
• 80% of passengers engage with personal or in-car screens
• External world attention drops 40–60%
• Advertisers shift 25–35% of automotive-route spend to digital/mobile/in-car media

For a company with tens of thousands of static structures, this is catastrophic.

Even a 20% decline in effective viewership could trigger:

• Massive CPM compression
• Lower renewal rates on local bulletins
• Decreased national brand interest
• Pressure on lease costs
• Accelerated relocations and take-downs
• Reduced valuations for entire markets

Static boards don’t become less profitable —
They become stranded assets.

3. The Economic Hit: A Potential $600M–$1B Revenue Risk

Lamar generates roughly $2.5B in annual revenue, with the majority coming from roadside bulletin and poster inventory.

If just 30% of static roadside impressions lose significant advertiser value as attention shifts inside the vehicle, Lamar could face:

• $600M–$1B in at-risk annual revenue
• Depressed asset valuations across 40–70 markets
• Decreased ability to refinance structures
• Higher lease renegotiation pressure
• Slower growth relative to digital competitors
• A shift in Wall Street perception: from “steady cash flow” to “declining utility.”

This isn’t doomsday speculation — it is the natural consequence of a market where roads still exist, but attention does not.

4. Markets Where Lamar Is Most Exposed

The highest risk falls on:

• Suburban arterial corridors

The exact roads where commuter attention disappears first.

• Interstate stretches with no digital upgrade path

These boards remain static forever — regardless of how the audience changes.

• Markets with rising autonomous adoption

Phoenix, Austin, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Atlanta — each is becoming an AV growth hub.

• DMAs where Lamar under-indexes in digital screens

Markets with 1–3% digitization may see 30–50% revenue risk.

5. Why Digital Conversion Alone Won’t Be Enough

Even if Lamar digitized at scale, digital screens must also become:

• connected to in-car systems
• aware of surrounding vehicle data
• programmatic-ready
• audience-measurable
• dynamic and responsive
• compatible with mobile and AR ecosystems

Swapping vinyl for LED isn’t the solution.
The future requires intelligent, not just digital, billboards.

6. The Core Message: Lamar Can Survive — But Not By Standing Still

Lamar is an admired industry leader with a long history of adapting when necessary. But the autonomous future is unlike anything OOH has faced before.

If the company waits too long to transform key segments of its static portfolio, the economic consequences could reshape its financials for decades.

If it adapts early — integrating digital upgrades, real-time data, and vehicle-connected interfaces — Lamar could stay dominant.

The risk is real.
The clock is already ticking.
And the companies that modernize now will be the ones still standing when autonomous mobility becomes the norm.