Even the Losers

Goldman Sachs Math

Even the Losers

OOH…Here’s One Thing

by Jim Johnsen,
Managing Director, Johnsen, Fretty & Company

https://youtu.be/5Ue4_MWwKY8?si=gFkLrT6OXunV

Two cars parked on the overpass
Rocks hit the water like broken glass
I shoulda known right then it was too good to last
God, it’s such a drag when you live in the past  – Tom Petty

Wow, still miss this guy…but I digress.  What a poignant end to a spectacular World Cup.  I generally don’t have enough patience to sit through ninety minutes (plus whatever the ref decides to add…what the heck is that?) of short passes, theatrical tumbles and scoreless halves, but as the series rolled on I found myself glued to the games.  IMHO it brought the world together better than the Olympics has in the past.

So Johnsen, what’s with the title?  Well, since Norway lost to England, and England beat France, and Argentina is disqualified on the count of arrogance, maybe Norway could lay claim to a 3rd in the World Cup?  How’s that for Goldman Sachs math?  But seriously, I don’t think you can underestimate how much Norway gained from the tourney.  It’s too early for the economists to weigh in but my guess is between a “measurable boost in national mood that some economists actually try to quantify”, new tourism and jersey and related sales, I am guessing it moves the needle for Norway.

Which begs the question, did the World Cup do anything for the U.S.?  Here’s what my buddy Claudette has to say:

“Not really, in relative terms. U.S. GDP is roughly $30 trillion annually, so the midpoint estimate of $8 billion is about 0.027% of GDP — a rounding error at the national level.

For context, Americans spend more than $8 billion on Halloween costumes and candy each year. The U.S. economy generates that amount roughly every 36 hours

But not all is lost…A city like Kansas City or Seattle feels $500M–$1B much more than the national economy feels $8B.”

I leave you with this humbling thought.  At $10B annually the Outdoor business represents about 0.03% of the U.S. GDP.  Ouch.  What a world!

JJ

 

 

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Securities transacted through StillPoint Capital Member firm FINRA/SiPC

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