What happens to Billboard Companies when no one is driving?The Dark Future of Out of Home:
Part 3 —The Ugly

What Happens When No One Is Looking at the Road?
The Future of Out of Home in a Self-Driving World

By Brent Baer, Publisher OOH Today and OOH Owner, baerboards, llc

This post’s intention, like many I pen, is to compel the Industry to think, discuss, and take action on the issues facing the OOH Industry. The Self-Driving/Automated Vehicle poses a threat to our business unlike any we have encountered. Yes, I am aware that my statement is dramatic in tone, but I genuinely believe Automated Vehicles (AV) are a real threat.

Please let me make a few personal points you should know, as my writing assistant, Allison Iverson, and I reviewed and built this narrative.

1. I have been in the OOH business since 1980.
2. I LOVE billboards!
3. I own billboards. Granted, I do not own many, and my actual revenues pale in comparison to most of you owners reading this, but I value the few I have, and they are as vital to me as the thousands owned by Lamar or the dozens of you owning hundreds.
4. I bleed potato paste and vinyl ink.
5. I have a handful of friends who are OOH diehard veterans and who own and swear by their self-driving Tesla, and they see the potential demise of OOH as well.
6. The government will have to pry my steering wheel from my cold, hard hands one finger at a time before I give up my right and love of driving.

So what are we going to do?

Here’s the deal, readers. Automated vehicles are coming. For those who poo-poo that statement by responding, “it’s years away,” are essentially agreeing with me and consciously choosing to ignore the fact that Automated Vehicles are coming and they will adversely impact billboards. AVs are coming. Like Winter from the TV movie series Game of Thrones, the White Walkers (Winter) are coming, and we need to be prepared.

So if it’s 10 years, 15 years, or 30 years away, they are coming, and when they are here, it may be gradual, AVs WILL be here, and as an Industry, we’d better be prepared.

I am so tired of OOH leaders ignoring that fact.

Over the last 7 years, I have warned about AVs and spoken to the highest levels of leadership in the billboard Industry about them.  In those conversations, the answers have shared a common thread:

1. “We know it’s coming, and we don’t have an answer.”
2. “We do not want to panic the Industry, particularly the advertising/brands, about our future.”
3. “We do not want to panic the investors or stock market regarding the future value of OOH.”
4. “If you share these statements with anyone, I will deny any conversation and blacklist you from future discussions of anything OOH related.”

The next 15 years will reshape out-of-home advertising more dramatically than any era since large-format printing or digital billboards. With AVs expanding rapidly, every OOH executive must ask: what happens to billboard attention when no one is driving?

The early intuition is that passengers in self-driving vehicles will bury their faces in their phones, ignoring the world around them. But the truth is more complicated. In a future where cars drive themselves, the physical world becomes a new media canvas, and the vehicle becomes a new screen.

Every window will become a screen for information and entertainment. Ask yourselves why Apple obtained a Patent for an Augmented Reality Windshield? If you think it is only because the current screens, as we imagine them, aren’t big enough, you are ignoring the intelligence and forward thinking of Apple. I believe Apple sees the future in automobile screens, and it’s called entertainment, information, and fundamentally, ad dollars. Have you ever watched Apple+ on your home screen?

For those of you who say, ‘I will always look at the roadside while driving,’  you are ignoring the generation growing up today, buried in their screens. You are ignoring the younger generation, who are not rushing to DMVs to obtain their driver’s licenses. As screens are taking over the lives of youth, so is the excitement of driving diminishing.

So, yes, YOU may never stop looking at the roadside while traveling to Grandma’s house this Thanksgiving, but take a look in the back seat to see what junior is looking at. It’s not the scenery. It’s the screen. The generations following us could give a rat’s behind what is on the road.

As for me personally, it looks bleak. I might ask why anyone would look at the ‘scenery’ when they could read a book, watch a movie, text, work, play a digital game, sleep, or fool around (yes, I said it) while the self-driving car drives them to their destination?

Read a book, watch a movie, text, work, play a digital game, sleep, fool around (yes, I said it) while the self-driving car drives them to their destination?

What Happens to Billboard Companies When No One Is Looking at the Road? The Dark Future of OOH

The Ugly

What happens to the billboard company when Automated Vehicles take over? Let’s dig in on the BIG 3.

The Lamar Risk: What Happens When the Static-Heavy Giant Faces an Autonomous Future?

Lamar Advertising is one of the most respected and enduring companies in the OOH industry. Its footprint is massive, its family-led culture is admired, and its network defines roadside advertising in America.

But Lamar also has the highest exposure to the autonomous-vehicle shift because it owns the most extensive static billboard portfolio in the U.S.—more than 150,000 displays.

In a world where millions of passengers stop looking out the window, that exposure becomes a liability.

Below is a realistic scenario of what could happen if Lamar fails to modernize key segments of its inventory.

1. The High-Risk Inventory: Roadside Static Billboards

Only about 4–5% of Lamar’s roadside bulletins are digital.
That means more than 95% are static — dependent on the audience of drivers who must face forward.

But in a future where:

• Autonomous vehicles dominate
• Passengers’ attention turns to in-car screens
• Phones and AR devices command the commute
• Routes become smoother, quieter, and more insulated

…static roadside exposure loses its fundamental value.

Let’s quantify it.

2. The Attention Collapse Scenario

Assume the following conservative model by 2040:

• 50% of urban and suburban trips are autonomous
• 80% of passengers engage with personal or in-car screens
• External world attention drops 40–60%
• Advertisers shift 25–35% of automotive-route spend to digital/mobile/in-car media

For a company with tens of thousands of static structures, this is catastrophic.

Even a 20% decline in effective viewership could trigger:

• Massive CPM compression
• Lower renewal rates on local bulletins
• Decreased national brand interest
• Pressure on lease costs
• Accelerated relocations and take-downs
• Reduced valuations for entire markets

Static boards don’t become less profitable —
They become stranded assets.

3. The Economic Hit: A Potential $600M–$1B Revenue Risk

Lamar generates roughly $2.5B in annual revenue, with the majority coming from roadside bulletin and poster inventory.

If just 30% of static roadside impressions lose significant advertiser value as attention shifts inside the vehicle, Lamar could face:

• $600M–$1B in at-risk annual revenue
• Depressed asset valuations across 40–70 markets
• Decreased ability to refinance structures
• Higher lease renegotiation pressure
• Slower growth relative to digital competitors
• A shift in Wall Street perception: from “steady cash flow” to “declining utility”

This isn’t doomsday speculation — it is the natural consequence of a market where roads still exist, but attention does not.

4. Markets Where Lamar Is Most Exposed

The highest risk falls on:

1. Suburban arterial corridors

The exact roads where commuter attention disappears first.

1. Interstate stretches with no digital upgrade path

These boards remain static forever — regardless of how the audience changes.

1. Markets with rising autonomous adoption

Phoenix, Austin, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Atlanta — each is becoming an AV growth hub.

1. DMAs where Lamar under-indexes in digital screens

Markets with 1–3% digitization may see 30–50% revenue risk.

5. Why Digital Conversion Alone Won’t Be Enough

Even if Lamar digitized at scale, digital screens must also become:

• connected to in-car systems
• aware of surrounding vehicle data
• programmatic-ready
• audience-measurable
• dynamic and responsive
• compatible with mobile and AR ecosystems

Simply swapping vinyl for LED is not the solution.
The future requires intelligent, not just digital, billboards.

6. The Core Message: Lamar Can Survive — But Not By Standing Still

Lamar is an admired industry leader with a long history of adapting when necessary. But the autonomous future is unlike anything OOH has faced before.

If the company waits too long to transform key segments of its static portfolio, the economic consequences could reshape its financials for decades.

If it adapts early — integrating digital upgrades, real-time data, and vehicle-connected interfaces — Lamar could stay dominant.

The risk is real.
The clock is already ticking.
And the companies that modernize now will be the ones still standing when autonomous mobility becomes the norm.

Autonomous Vehicles vs. OOH: Which Companies Are Most at Risk?

A Comparative Exposure Analysis of Lamar, OUTFRONT, and Clear Channel Outdoor

As autonomous vehicles become increasingly normalized—Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, and others scaling from pilot markets to regional networks—OOH’s long-standing assumption of a “captive driver audience” breaks down. The shift from driving to being driven fundamentally alters attention patterns, potentially reducing noticeability of static roadside inventory.

Not all OOH companies face this exposure equally.

Below is a deep comparative analysis showing how Lamar, OUTFRONT, and Clear Channel differ in risk, readiness, and strategic exposure to an AV-heavy future (2035–2040).

1. Inventory Exposure Profiles

Lamar Advertising

• ~80–85% static roadside billboards
• Rural & mid-market-centric
• Less digital conversion than industry peers
  → Highest risk profile

Lamar’s heavy reliance on static highway billboards puts them at the center of AV risk. Autonomous vehicles will increasingly reduce “forced attention,” especially on long stretches where riders default to screen time rather than scenery.

OUTFRONT Media

• Strong transit footprint (subways, rail, buses)
• Higher digital penetration in urban corridors
• More DOOH screens in high-density environments
  → Moderate risk

OUTFRONT’s diversification into transit and urban digital networks offsets its reliance on roadside exposure. Riders in transit vehicles (human or autonomous) already behave like AV passengers—heads down, phones out.

Clear Channel Outdoor

• Heavy concentration in major metros
• Large airport network
• More advanced in programmatic activation
  → Lower roadside risk, higher digital leverage

Though CCO does have roadside inventory, its metro-first footprint reduces its AV exposure compared to Lamar’s highway-heavy model.

2. Business Model Resilience

Lamar

Vulnerabilities

• High reliance on static ads
• Slow digital retrofit rate
• Smaller footprint in urban DOOH
• Limited data-driven delivery capabilities

Impact of AV adoption:
Static boards become progressively less valuable as attention shifts to in-car screens and AR navigation overlays.

OUTFRONT

Advantages

• A strong internal tech stack (e.g., ON Smart Media)
• Already selling contextual, real-time DOOH

OUTFRONT has more pathways to adaptation because transit formats—station dominations, platform screens, rail cards—are immune to autonomous vehicles.

Clear Channel

Advantages

• Programmatic adoption ahead of peers
• Higher percentage of roadside digital inventory
• Strong international footprint (Europe is already AV-adjacent with semi-autonomous fleets)

Risk:
Capital-dependent and still restructuring—but strategically better aligned with the DOOH future than Lamar.

3. Financial Exposure (Hypothetical but Economically Realistic Outlook)

Assuming 50% AV adoption by 2040, with 30–40% reduced attention to static boards:

Lamar’s Exposure

• If 40% of static roadside impressions are no longer reliably “viewed,” the CPM value drops.
• Lamar’s revenue could decline 15–25% on affected inventory.
• If even 20% of inventory becomes economically obsolete, that’s:
  ~36,000+ static boards with impaired revenue potential
  (based on their ~180,000 displays, the majority static)

This creates:

• Asset write-downs
• Shorter lease renegotiation terms
• Reduced valuation multiple

OUTFRONT’s Exposure

• Transit and urban DOOH maintain relevance
• Roadside static may decline, but media mix softens impact
  Risk: 8–12% revenue erosion in a 50% AV world.

Clear Channel’s Exposure

• Digital-heavy metros allow faster adaptation
  Risk: 5–10% erosion, offset by programmatic growth.

4. Technological Readiness & Strategic Positioning

Company	Static Dependency	Digital Share	Transit Share	Programmatic Strength	AV Exposure
Lamar	Very High	Low–Moderate	Very Low	Low	High Risk
OUTFRONT	Moderate	Moderate–High	High	Moderate	Moderate Risk
Clear Channel	Moderate	High	Moderate	High	Lower Risk

5. What Happens if They Don’t Adapt?

Lamar (most urgent risk)

If Lamar does not aggressively digitize and build data-driven products:

• Significant asset obsolescence
• Lower long-term lease renewal values
• Reduced investor confidence
• Reduced ability to compete with AV in-car ad networks
• Falling valuation multiple (e.g., from 10–12x EBITDA → 6–8x)

OUTFRONT

If ignored, they lose:

• Urban premium pricing
• Transit digital modernization advantages
  But they’d still avoid catastrophic exposure.

Clear Channel

If ignored, they risk:

• Falling behind DOOH innovation
• Losing programmatic leadership
  Impact remains smaller because their network is already more future-facing.

6. Bottom Line: Who’s Most at Risk?

🚨 Highest Risk: Lamar

Static, highway-heavy, slow digital transformation—precisely the inventory type AVs disrupt first.

⚠️ Moderate Risk: OUTFRONT

But transit and urban DOOH keep them relevant.

✔️ Lowest Risk: Clear Channel Outdoor

Their metro digital strategy already aligns with how AV passenger attention behaves.

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