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Upside Down

Voting for the Tesla or JetBlue of Outdoor

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OOH …Here’s One Thing 

by Jim Johnsen,
Managing Director, Johnsen, Fretty & Company

For the first time in 10 years my boarding pass comes out without my TSA-Pre on it.  WTF? 
It’s Atlanta, and it’s a shit show like only ATL can serve up.  The agent tells me to see the ticketing desk, and they will be able to remedy my defective boarding pass.  After a 1/2 hour wait, I get to the salty Delta agent, she sees my TSA number, reprints the boarding pass, and lo and behold, it still does not show.  Five more attempts.  No cigar.  She tells me I will have no choice but to go through the normal security check.  It’s Thursday, and the Atlanta TSA has decided to send POTUS a message.  I would rather have oral surgery…without the novocaine…than attempt the “normal” line.  

(jump to 2:25 if you are pressed for time)

Johnsen, funny, but where are you going with this?  Well, it was either contemplate my navel or reflect on the recent IBO conference and why oligopolies exist, as I snaked (actually snailed) through the security process.  Huh?  Well with plenty of time I got to thinking.  Why does Lamar, Outfront and Clear Channel control 65% (maybe more) of the action in the Outdoor business?  I mean you have a group of independent, well meaning, industrious, smart, entrepreneurial people in the Independent Billboard Operators (IBO) association, and yet from a global macro perspective, they are overshadowed by the Big 3.

How did this happen…and will it get worse or better?  

I am not sure that I am willing to fully succumb to the Darwinian theory of business enterprise, but the world is certainly littered with Oligopolies.  

A few examples, per ChatGPT

Cars:

10 Global car manufacturers control 90% of the world’s production. Volkswagen, Toyota, Stellantis (Fiat/Chrysler etc.), General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Renault.  

Airlines:

The airline industry is one of the most consolidated major industries in the world, especially in regions like the United States, Europe, and increasingly Asia.  Think American Airlines, Delta, United, Southwest.

Mobile Phones:
Instead of a few giant corporations owning all the brands, control is concentrated among a handful of powerful manufacturers, component suppliers, and platform owners that dominate global production, design, and software ecosystems.  Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Transsion Holdings, Honor, Huawei.  Together, these eight companies control roughly 90–95% of the global smartphone market.

Packaged goods: 

The packaged goods industry is controlled by fewer than a dozen multinational corporations that dominate global production, marketing, and distribution —with retail giants and logistics platforms shaping consumer access and pricing. Procter & Gamble (P&G), Unilever, Nestle, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola Company, Mondelez International, Mars, Incorporated, Johnson & Johnson, Colgate-Palmolive and Kimberly-Clark.


Energy (Oil, Gas, and Utilities):

Oil refining: The top 5 refiners (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Marathon, Valero, Phillips 66) control ~75% of U.S. capacity.
Utilities: Local monopolies by design — electricity and gas distribution are regulated but fully consolidated regionally.
Renewables: A few large developers (NextEra, Invenergy, Iberdrola/Avangrid) dominate capacity additions.
Summary: Energy is structurally consolidated — sometimes by regulation, sometimes by economics.
Meatpacking & Agriculture
Beef processing: The “Big Four” — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — control ~85% of U.S. beef.
Pork: Top 4 firms control ~70%.
Poultry: Top 4 control ~60%.
Seeds & Agrochemicals: Bayer (Monsanto), Corteva, Syngenta, BASF dominate.
Summary: Agriculture and food processing are among the most vertically integrated and concentrated supply chains in America.

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Drug distribution: The “Big Three” — McKesson, AmerisourceBergen (now Cencora), and Cardinal Health — control ~90% of the U.S. drug wholesale market.
Pharmacy retail: CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, and Cigna/Express Scripts dominate national pharmacy dispensing.
Health insurance: UnitedHealth, Elevance (Anthem), CVS/Aetna, and Cigna control ~60% of the market.
Hospitals: Many local hospital markets are near monopolies after decades of mergers.
Summary: U.S. healthcare — from drugs to insurance — is one of the most concentrated ecosystems in the world.

Banking & Financial Services
Top 4 banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) control ~40–45% of all U.S. deposits and an even higher share of credit card and investment banking markets.
Investment management is dominated by BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which together manage over $20 trillion — roughly 80% of all U.S. index fund assets.
Summary: One of the most consolidated sectors in America — both in banking and asset management.
Hey, I am sure whole dissertations have been written on the subject, and who am I, just a guy in a TSA line, to wax eloquent on the subject.  But does anyone else find it interesting that we ended up here?  In the end, maybe big business always wins.  Access to capital, cheap capital, economies to scale, best practices, political acumen, ability to hire the best and the brightest, network effect, etc favor the winners.  
Or maybe not.  Anyone remember General Outdoor, Pacific Outdoor, Naegele, Creative or Foster and Kleiser? There is a case to be made that we may just see the breakup of OUT or CCO.  LAMR…I am not sure I would bet on that one. Personally I am voting for the Tesla or JetBlue of Outdoor.  After attending the IBO, I am sure it’s out there.  
Happy Columbus/Indigenous People’s Day.  

“Who’s to say”

What’s impossible? Well they forgot 
This world keeps spinning, and with each new day
I can feel a change in everything
And as the surface breaks, reflections fade 
But in some ways, they remain the same  
a message for mobilytics
a message for mobilytics

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